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Among the five major pharmaceutical markets (5MM: Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore and Thailand), Brazil and Mexico are projected to be the leading contributors to the dengue vaccine marketplace, as it expands rapidly from an estimated $70 million in 2015 to $400 million by 2020, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 42 percent, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.
The company's latest report states that Brazil and Mexico will achieve a combined market share of over 98 percent across the 5MM in 2015, with respective sales of $45 million, equaling a 64 percent market share, and $24million (34 percent).
However, these shares will change dramatically by 2020, as Mexico will surge ahead to generate $217 million, a 54 percent market share, while Brazil's more modest growth will take it to $97 million (24 percent).
Growth in Brazil will be stymied by the arrival of a domestically-produced, live-attenuated dengue vaccine, TV-003, which GlobalData expects to seize substantial market share from big pharma-manufactured vaccines due to its lower price per dose.
Dr Christopher J Pace, GlobalData's Analyst covering infectious diseases, says, "The rapid uptake of dengue vaccines will be driven primarily by the inclusion of live-attenuated vaccines in national immunization programs.